Like most of you I too have heard Senator Clinton’s latest comments post her poor performance on Tuesday night. Yes, she won Indiana but by 1-2pts and she lost badly in North Carolina. Senator Clinton started a bit of a firestorm by saying the following words:
” I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,’ she told USA Today in an interview published yesterday. She referred to an Associated Press story on Indiana and North Carolina exit polls ‘that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.’ She added, ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’”
It is still surreal to me that the Clinton’s are now polling less than 8%-10% with black voters in the democrat primaries. It is simply unbelievable. I am less shocked or stunned, however, that Senator Obama is polling poorly with working class, white voters in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, etc. Yet, I must admit I think the Clinton’s have gotten a bum rap for the most part on this one. Let me explain.
The fact of the matter is Hillary Clinton has been more willing to reach out openly to black voters (particularly black women) than has Obama (for obvious reasons he did not want to be seen as the so-called “black candidate” but Rev. Wright fixed that for him). Consider the candidates forum hosted by Tavis Smiley in March in New Orleans. Clinton showed up Obama did not. Clinton has been more direct and forthright in debates when asked about the racial divide in America and the needs of poor minorities and blacks in particular.
My opinion is that Senator Clinton made her biggest mistake of the campaign by letting Billy Bob loose in South Carolina and letting him run his famous mouth, wag his finger, get red faced, and angry. This turned black voters off and she has paid the price ever since. Sadly, the country is still not ready for a black candidate for President (not really if we are being honest) and Clinton was forced to build a base where she could–working class white Reagan democrats. She has done well with them and this is a fact that the democrat leadership can ill afford to ignore.
Finally, Hillary is stating the OBVIOUS folks. She is identifying the 800lb elephant in the room that no-one wants to say exists. It does. Race matters in this campaign and so does gender to a lesser degree (I think??). Karl Rove and other political genius strategists have all cited that in an electoral contest against McCain right now Clinton is stronger because she is in play in states like PA, OH, WV, Michigan and Florida. That has to be a worry for the Obama campaign.
I think Clinton will bow out by late May or early June. I think she is now campaigning for VP. And by the looks of things, Obama will need to give her very serious consideration.